Black Friday is not always the cheapest time to shop, but it certainly gets the most hype. Analysts, retailers, and assorted pundits pick apart the sales every Thanksgiving break for signs on how much money Americans will drop over the holidays. The results are often mixed. This year, the National Retail Federation (NRF) is trumpeting a strong surge in spending. It says a record 247 million shoppers spent an average of $423 (a total of $59.1 billion) over “Black Friday weekend,” a period that now extends from Thursday to Sunday as more chains open on Thanksgiving Day. If true, that would be a 13 percent jump over the $398 they reported spending last year.
But don’t break out the bubbly just yet. NRF estimates for Black Friday spending are based on a consumer survey, and their accuracy is open to question. And even a legit boost in sales can indicate consumers are feeling flush, or that they’re desperately chasing doorbusters because money is tight. While the U.S. Commerce Department doesn’t break out Black Friday sales, its figures suggest the final tally for holiday spending isn’t likely to be as stratospheric as the trade group’s weekend numbers suggest.
